The Potential Global Economic Impact of the Metaverse
White Paper, 2022
In a report titled The Potential Global Economic Impact of the Metaverse, an Analysis Group team quantified the potential economic impact of the metaverse if it were to evolve like prior successful technologies in terms of the rate of adoption by users and the impact on GDP. The researchers selected mobile technology as an appropriate analog because of similarities to the metaverse in the way it combined existing and nascent innovations to fundamentally alter global technological and economic landscapes.
The metaverse is still in its formative stages but is envisioned to comprise an expansive network of digital spaces enabled by developing technologies such as augmented reality (AR), virtual reality (VR), and mixed reality (MR). The Analysis Group team utilized research on previous breakthrough technologies to draw inferences about the potential adoption process and economic impact of the metaverse. In addition, the study team drew from academic literature on the development cycles for innovative technologies and on publicly available data for the deployment and adoption of mobile technology over a number of years to assess direct, indirect, and catalytic or stimulative impacts on factors important for GDP, including job creation, business growth, and economic development.
The researchers concluded that the metaverse has the potential to contribute 2.8% to global gross domestic product (GDP) in the 10th year after the start of its adoption. If adoption began in 2022, for example, the metaverse could contribute $3 trillion to global GDP in 2031.
The study was authored by Analysis Group Managing Principal Laurits Christensen and Vice President Alex Robinson, who were supported by a team of economists. The independent study was funded by Meta.